October 2024 Ernemann Report

ASPEN ANALYTICS

Just a few quick observations:

  • With 9 months of 2024 in the books the trend of increasing prices for Aspen Snowmass properties is clearly showing the market continues to be strong:Average price per square foot is up 10%+ in Aspen for condos/townhouses as well as single family homes compared to 2023.Increases of 10%+ in Snowmass Village for condos/townhouses and about 4% for single family homes.

  • The “discount” to purchase a property in Snowmass Village versus Aspen continues to be north of 40% (based on average sold price per square foot).

  • Listing inventory continues to rise (somewhat slowly compared to the pace earlier this year), and the number of under contract listings is modestly lower than last year at this time (remember, Snowmass Village stats for condos are misleading because of the Base Village contracts that were pending at this time last year). This trend points toward a modestly cooling market, but of course buyers are showing on the whole they are still willing to pay a premium compared to last year.

  • Buyers are gaining some modest traction at the negotiating table but the numbers are relatively insignificant so it will take more time to see if this trend will continue.

  • Days on market are rising for Aspen single family homes, flat for Aspen condos/townhouses, and are dropping for Snowmass Village properties – when you see this number rise significantly there will likely be more seller price reductions on the horizon.

  • Despite continued and impressive strength at the upper end of the Aspen market it does appear that inventory is starting to build up north of $30m, and to a lesser extent above $10m. Sellers continue to try and exert upwards price pressure, there are 55+ homes with a list price above $3,500 per square foot, compared to an average of about 24+/- sales above that mark each of the past few years…the aspirational pricing of some sellers/properties will likely be tempered without an infusion of buyer demand over the coming months and beyond.

  • Land sales are virtually non-existent in Snowmass Village (no sales this year and no current listings), while Aspen shows signs of some oversupply for land with about 20 current listings and an average of about 10 sales per year the past two years (much of this pace can be attributed to the challenges with obtaining a demolition permit in the City of Aspen boundary).

  • Keep in mind the Aspen Snowmass real estate market has a big “bark” when it comes to garnering headlines, yet it’s a relatively small market in terms of the number of transactions…so there tends to be a huge range in every market stat and there’s also quite a bit of opportunity for trends to change quickly with only a few sales in a particular neighborhood, price point, etc.

  • A great example of how one might understand the breadth of pricing in the Aspen Snowmass real estate market is to consider the top price per square foot paid so far this year in Aspen of $6,905 (versus an average sale price of $3,225), and in Snowmass Village the top of the market this year is $3,823 per square foot (versus an average of $1,820). This means that there has been a range of over $5,000 per square foot this year just from the average sale in Snowmass Village versus the peak price in Aspen. This equates to a pricing differential of $25,000,000+ on a 5,000 square foot house!