January 2025 Ernemann Report

ASPEN & SNOWMASS ANALYTICS

Aspen

  • Overall, 2024 was very similar to 2023 with regards to the number of transactions…there were about 180-185 residential sales each of those years (excluding deed-restricted and fractional sales). The number of single family sales was down slightly in 2024 compared to the year prior, and the number of condo/townhome sales increased.

  • Interestingly, the total dollar volume of sales in Aspen was also very similar to 2023, and I find that noteworthy because prices actually increased about 10% for condo/townhomes and nearly 14% on average for single family homes compared to the year before.

  • Buyer negotiating spreads didn’t really change this past year, on average buyers are negotiating 5%+/- off the list price for condos/townhomes and 8%+/- for single family homes – keep in mind these are just the averages and in reality there are properties that sell at, or even above, the list price and there are sales that occur a full 20%+ (or more) off the list price.

  • One of the most notable statistics from 2024 is that the average single family home sale reached nearly $20m (!), and the average condo sale was over $4.5m. Take a moment to consider just how affluent the “average” buyer for Aspen property is in the context of those prices. And keep in mind that just a few short years ago it was unusual for a home to sell north of $20m in Aspen (i.e. pre-2020 there were usually 2-3 sales a year in that price range), and in 2024 there were 31 single family home sales over $20m.

  • The average annual price appreciation for Aspen residential property has been 10.9% over the past 10 years…that’s a substantial number (it’s been nearly 16% per year over the past 5 years).

  • The average days on market is hovering around 200 days in Aspen, this indicates a market that has been slowing down (just a bit) and properties are selling in a little over 6 months on average…this is well below the 300-350 average days on market that was typical prior to the sales surge that occurred from 2020-2022.

  • The number of available listings has risen 50%+ over the past two years, and while that seems like a big increase the reality is that overall listing inventory is still 40-50% lower than the “healthy” market years of 2015-2019. An deeper look at the numbers shows that an average of about 13% of the listing inventory was under contract in 2024, and this is very consistent with historical “normal” market timeframes.

 

So, what does this all mean? It’s clear that the Aspen real estate market continues to be strong overall. That said, the first half of 2024 was definitely stronger than the second half; and there have been some modest trend indicators pointing towards a slowing market, but historically low listing inventory continues to drive prices upward. The first ever $100m+ sale in Aspen occurred in 2024 and I would expect as long as there’s wind in the sails of the most affluent real estate buyers and investors there will continue to be confidence injected into the Aspen real estate market in the form of significant sales. The overall market tends to take cues from the top in Aspen so keep an eye on the listing inventory and transaction activity over $15m going forward.

 

Take a look at this graph with a 20 year perspective on the number of sales and price per sq ft for Aspen residential properties…both facets of the market have a lot of stories to tell when you take a giant step back and study the long-term view!

Snowmass Village

  • The Snowmass Village market is more bifurcated than Aspen because of the nature of Base Village sales over the past few years. There has been tremendous momentum with each new Base Village condo offering, and the closings of many new condos has blurred the market statistics because there are marked price differences between “new” and “old” Snowmass Village condo prices.

  • There were nearly 200 condo sales in Snowmass Village over the course of 2024 (compared to about 140 the year prior, and compared to 110 condo sales in Aspen in 2024). By comparison there were only 32 single family home sales in Snowmass Village in 2024.

  • The average price per square foot for all sales in Snowmass Village jumped significantly over the course of the past year, from about $1,650 per square foot up to nearly $2,250 per square foot for condos (thanks to Base Village closings), while single family prices rose from $1,780 per square foot on average in 2023 to $1,925 per square foot in 2024. 

  • Buyers gained a modest 1% +/- more negotiating power in 2024, but average sales are still pretty tight to the asking price with about a 95-96% sale-to-list price ratio.

  • Despite the huge price bumps (particularly for condo sales), Snowmass Village continues to be a “value” opportunity compared to Aspen, with average single family home prices less than half of Aspen ($8.5m versus nearly $20m). And, Snowmass condos are still selling at a 25-30% price per square foot discount compared to Aspen.

  • Similarly to Aspen, Snowmass Village prices have enjoyed a strong 10-year run, with over 10% average annual gains during that time period.

  • Available listing inventory in Snowmass Village remains historically low – only about 20 single family homes are currently on the market; and not including the 80+ current listings at the new Base Village offering of Stratos there’s about a 6 month supply, or less, of available condo/townhome listings.

 

So, what does this all mean? The Snowmass Village real estate market continues to have a solid engine in the form of Base Village sales. The “discount” for Snowmass Village condos relative to Aspen has narrowed substantially from about 50% to less than 30% in a relatively short timespan, and it will be interesting to see how Stratos sales manifest with some condos asking in excess of $5,000 per square foot (on par with Aspen pricing). A general lack of single family listings available is assisting prices to ever higher levels as well, although the “discount” to Aspen for single family homes has remained steady in the 40-45% range. Overall sales interest and activity remain healthy in Snowmass Village for the moment, the question for 2025 is whether the recent price trends can continue upward given the 20%+ average annual gains over the past five years.

 

Here’s the 20-year perspective for Snowmass Village sales and price per square foot…note how the trends differ from Aspen, and how both areas share a similar price run over the past few years…